NUTRITION

Aquafeed prices enter 2026 under pressure amid uncertainty over marine ingredients

Madrid, 19 January 2026 | In the final quarter of 2025, fishmeal and fish oil prices rose sharply, supported by stronger demand and a tighter market

Gráfica de precios de los piensos

In aquaculture, where feed can account for more that 50% of production costs, tracking its price evolution is essential to understanding farm profitability. That is why benchmark indices that estimate feed trends are seen as valuable tools for anticipating market moves, planning procurement and adjusting production strategies.

For such tools to be truly useful, however, the methodology must reflect the specific realities of aquafeed formulation. Industry sources argue that any robust index needs to consider factors such as raw material quality, ingredient availability, and premiums linked to traceability and certification, as well as species-and market-specific requirements like restrictions on the use of GMO raw materials.

The growing weight of functional ingredients, together with increasing segmentation between standard diets and premium product ranges, has also made it harder to compress the market into a single “average” reference price.

This debate has become more pressing at a time when uncertainty around marine ingredients is rising. After a 2025 in which prices were relatively stable for much of the year – both for marine ingredients and key plant-based commodities - 2026 could see fishmeal and fish oil markets move into a more constrained phase. Prices are being underpinned by continued growth in global demand, while supply has limited capacity to absorb unexpected disruption.

Experts consulted by misPeces agree that, beyond the direction of agricultural commodities, fishmeal – and specially fish oil – will remain among the most sensitive components of aquafeed formulation costs. Fish oil is viewed as particularly exposed due to the variability of yields across different fisheries.

With demand of these ingredients continuing to rise, market expectations for 2026 place global fishmeal output around 5.5 – 5.6 million tonnes, and fish oil production at roughly 1.2 million tonnes. Yet the closing months of 2025 already signalled a tighter market. According to data obtained by misPeces, fishmeal moved from a relatively stable first half of the year, with gradual increases, into a fourth quarter marked by sharp gains across all grades, breaking the relative stability that had characterised most of the year.

In the final stretch of the year, pressure on available stocks pushed spot market prices sharply higher. According to data gathered by misPeces, isolated standard fishmeal deals climbed from the USD 1,350–1,450 range to nearly USD 2,000/t as buyers sought immediate cover. Prime and Super Prime grades, meanwhile, broke through the USD 2,100–2,200/t threshold in these short-term transactions, setting a psychological benchmark that points to tougher contract negotiations at the start of 2026.

In this environment, any supply-side disruption – whether linked to quotas, landings or conditions in key producing regions – can be transmitted rapidly through the market. In Europe, a potential shortfall of certified marine raw materials for species such as Atlantic salmon, gilthead seabream and European seabass could further increase reliance on imports and underpin firmness in certain specifications.

When it comes to passing these moves through into feed prices, the impact largely depends on which ingredients carry the most weight in each formulation. In terms of direct cost, plant proteins and concentrates—such as soy and its derivatives—tend to be the main drivers because of their high inclusion rates, while oils, and especially fish oil, are often the most sensitive component when markets tighten due to their more limited substitutability.

Even so, the actual impact on finished feed prices will depend on the inclusion rates of fishmeal and fish oil in each formulation, and the scope for substitution with other raw materials.

For species where the marine ingredients remain relatively important, such as salmonids (Atlantic salmon and rainbow trout), price increases can feed through more visibly. As an indicative example, a 10% rise in the combined cost of fishmeal and fish oil could translate into a roughly 1.5% to 3% increased finished feed prices, depending on inclusion levels and movements in other ingredients. For marine species such as seabream and seabass, where commercial formulations tend to optimise marine ingredients use and rely more heavily on alternative proteins, the impact is typically smaller: a similar 10% increase might translate into a 1% to 2.5% rise in feed prices, with significant variation between standard and premium diets.

In any case, fish oil is expected to remain the key ingredient to watch in 2026. Its lower substitutability combined with its tendency to act as the main catalyst for upward adjustments when markets tighten means it will likely continue to set the tone for high-performance aquafeed costs.