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World Bank Forecast a Favourable Outlook for Feed Commodity Costs in 2025 and 2026

Washington, USA, 30 October 2025 |

Manos con soja en campo

The World Bank, through its latest commodity markets report, has forecast a general decline in raw material prices for 2025 and 2026, which could help ease aquafeed production costs.

According to World Bank estimates, global prices of major commodities could fall by around 7% over both years, driven by slowdown in the world economy and a significant oversupply of oil.

For the aquaculture sector, this scenario translates into cheaper energy and more affordable agricultural raw materials – two of the key components in the final cost of feed.

For 2025, the World Bank projects a 12% drop in energy prices, followed by a further 10% decline in 2026, with Brent crude expected to fall to USD 60 per barrel – its lowest level in five years.

In addition, agricultural food prices are forecast to decrease by 6.1% in 2025 and by a further 0.3% in 2026, with soybean stabilizing after a record production year, and wheat and maize showing a downward trend.

Feed manufacturers could benefit from purchasing raw materials at lower prices, as well as from reduced energy costs in production and transport, if these forecasts materialise. This could in turn influence the final price paid by aquaculture producers, particularly in Europe.

However, the report also issues several warnings, highlighting risk factors that could disrupt this scenario – notably, a projected 21% increase in fertilizer prices during 2025, due to trade restrictions and higher input costs. This could affect agricultural profitability and put upward pressure on plant-based commodity prices in the medium term.

An intensification of the La Niña phenomenon could also reduce crop yields in South America – particularly soy and maize – and impact anchovy fishing in Peru, which is essential for producing fishmeal and fish oil. These combined effects could limit availability and drive up the cost of key ingredients used in aquafeed.

As always, climatic stability and geopolitical tensions could tip the balance between cheap energy and moderate commodity prices.