Mowi anticipates a change in the salmon market cycle after a 2025 defined by strong supply growth and pressure on prices. Looking ahead to 2026, the company expects limited global production growth and a more favourable environment for the supply-demand balance.
The salmon market during 2025 was characterised by unusually high growth in global supply, reaching 12%. This figure sits significantly above the historical average of 3% recorded over the last decade. This sharp increase in market volume exerted direct downward pressure on selling prices, affecting the sector’s operating margins despite robust consumer demand.
For the 2026 financial year, the outlook points towards a drastic stabilisation of production. Global industry supply growth is expected to be limited to just 1%. This sharp deceleration in the pace of production will help restore the balance between supply and demand, creating a more constructive pricing environment for producers. “The salmon market could regain its balance in 2026 after a year marked by oversupply”.
Against this backdrop of normalisation, Mowi plans to consolidate its leadership by accelerating its own production above the industry average. The company has sent a harvest target of 605,000 tonnes for 2026, representing an increase from the 558,870 tonnes achieved in 2026. With this projected 8.3% volume growth, the world’s largest producer aims to continue gaining share in a global market that is set to tighten once again in the coming months.
The scenario outlined by Mowi points to a market normalisation after an atypical year, where biological improvements translated into higher supply and price pressure. For 2026, the combination of lower production growth and sustained demand driven by healthy eating trends could return stability and profitability to the salmon sector.
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