A recent report from Rabobank, a global bank with a strong foucs on the agri-food sector, has issued a stark warning: the aquaculture industry faces a critical challenge unless it can find viable replacements for fishmeal and fish oil. The document highlights a growing clash between rising demand for these key ingredients, fuelled by the production of high-value species such as salmon and prawns, and a supply that has all but stagnated.
According to Rabobank’s findings, this imbalance is already having a direct impact on prices. The availability of these vital marine ingredients is becoming increasingly vulnerable to global issues, particularly the effects of climate change and El Niño events, which drastically disrupt the anchovy fisheries off Peru, the world’s largest producer.
This precarious situation has made demand of these ingredients inelastic, leading to greater prices volatility and the establishment of new, much higher price benchmarks during future supply shocks.
The report caution that a significant shortage of fishmeal could begin to be felt as early as 2028, while the scarcity of fish oil is expected to intensify throughout the decade.
Rabobank maintains that to ensure sustainable growth, the industry must take proactive measures. Novel feed sources are not merely an alternative; they are emerging as essential components of future feed formulations. The adoption of innovations like algal oils, insects meals, and microbially-sourced proteins will be crucial for the sector to build resilience and secure its long-term viability in an environment of increasingly limited resources.
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