A team of Chilean researchers led by Dr Doris Soto has proposed a model to regulate salmon farming through a “traffic light” system based on integrated ecosystem-scale risk assessment.
The proposal, published in Reviews in Aquaculture under the title “Risk is not equal to impact: The challenges of developing a traffic light system to regulate farmed salmon production on an ecosystem scale”, combines environmental, health and production variables to support a more preventive, sustainable and evidence-based management approach.
The study integrates a decade of information, from 2012 to 2022, from salmon farming areas in Chilean Patagonia.
Using production, health, oceanographic and climatic data, the researchers developed a semi-quantitative model designed to guide the creation of a regulatory tool capable of classifying risk by area.
Among its main findings, the model identifies the highest risk levels where high production pressure coincides with high environmental sensitivity, particularly in fjords in the Los Lagos and Aysén regions.
This approach would make it possible to prioritise critical areas and act before impacts occur, shifting management from a reactive logic towards a more preventive one.
The authors warn, however, that relevant knowledge gaps remain when it comes to accurately determining ecosystem-scale impacts, particularly in relation to possible ecological tipping points.
They therefore for stronger monitoring systems, improved data generation at appropriate spatial scales and the application of the precautionary principle when available information is insufficient to define ecological limits with certainty.
The proposal also stresses the need for collaborative processes involving public authorities, industry, the scientific community and civil society to validate data, define environmental risk thresholds and establish governance mechanisms.
Possible measures associated with the system include regulating maximum production by farming area and reducing the total use of antimicrobials and pesticides, due to their potential cumulative effect on ecosystems.
The researchers also argue that the current spatial distribution of salmon farming should be reviewed in light of these risks and emerging factors such as climate change.
Implementing a traffic light system would involve technical, social and economic challenges, but could contribute to a more resilient salmon farming sector, with greater social acceptance and better alignment with the real carrying capacity of the ecosystems in which it operates.
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